Rusty Market Musings » ISM

03/08/2009 S&P 500 broke 1000

LtPinback — Mon, 03 Aug 2009 21:06:28 +0000

Uptrend mode continues. Volume was below average.

S&P 500 Index 5min Chart

S&P 500 SPDRs 5min Chart

ISM manufacturing index in July jumped a very big 4.1 points to 48.9. Market reacted with a strong move upwards that took the S&P 500 above the 1000 points line.

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart

06/07/2009 Volatility on looming H&S pattern completion

LtPinback — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 22:16:30 +0000

Market opened with a gap lower and a classic close-the-gap move to the previous session’s low that was quickly followed by a steep sell-off that printed 886.36 is the S&P 500. From there the market managed a slow upward trend to end barely in the green. Volume was below average.

S&P 500 Index 5min Chart

S&P 500 SPDRs 5min Chart

A very volatile session with all eyes on the developing Head & Shoulders pattern. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing report was slightly better than consensus.

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart

Good consolidation day

LtPinback — Fri, 03 Apr 2009 22:31:21 +0000

Another day of consolidation. Market opened almost flat then tested support around 825 and from there printed higher highs and higher lows. The day ended with a last minute rally that took the S&P 500 to just under yesterdays’ high. Volume was average.

S&P 500 Index 5min Chart

S&P 500 SPDRs 5min Chart

Nonfarm payroll employment in March fell 663,000 which was a bit worse than the market forecast for a 650,000 drop. The ISM non-manufacturing composite index came out at 40.8 well below the 42.0 consensus before the announcement.
The S&P 500 is knocking at the door of the 850.00 resistance. The index also broke the November high downtrend but there remains to see it it will hold.

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart

Crash mode. Fear. No capitulation

LtPinback — Mon, 02 Mar 2009 22:37:24 +0000

Consistent and orderly sell off from the start of the day with increasingly fear. Bulls couldn’t or wouldn’t firm up bids. Sell off accelerated after a minuscule rally failed (rally led by Financial Sector, most likely shorts taking profits). In the last half hour of trading, the S&P 500 hit an intraday low of 699.70. A new low since October 1996. Volume was high.

S&P 500 Index 5min Chart

S&P 500 SPDRs 5min Chart

After breaking support the S&P 500 Index is basically free falling. Worst still is that no clear support is to be found apart from guessing on multi-year support levels grounded more in psychology than technical fundamentals.

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart

[caption id="attachment_159" align="aligncenter" width="300" caption="S&P 500 Index Daily Long Chart"][/caption]
News over the weekend of AIG’s record $61.7 billion loss and the 3rd government bailout for the insurer drove down Financial Sectors around the world. Health Sector continued to plummet on fears of profit erosion due to planned budget.
A report from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed manufacturing continued to contract in February.
Oil futures fell more than 10% due to global perception that the recovery will take longer than previously assumed.