Rusty Market Musings » AXP

24/04/2009 Too much Optimism?

LtPinback — Fri, 24 Apr 2009 22:27:09 +0000

Market gaped higher and trended up until a heavy sell-off on heavy volume begining at 1:20 took price to the opening levels. The ticker then rallied to just above the 870 resistance on less volume than the fall. In the last minutes of the trading day a large profit taking sell-off took place. The close was at 866. Volume was high.

S&P 500 Index 5min Chart

S&P 500 SPDRs 5min Chart

Better than expected report by Ford (F) and American Express (AXP) fueled the rally onward.

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart

Choppyville

LtPinback — Wed, 15 Apr 2009 23:19:57 +0000

A slightly upward tight channel developed for most of the day between 835 and the pivot point at 846. In the last half hour of the trading day the price broke upward to close slightly above the 850 key level. Volume was average.

S&P 500 Index 5min Chart

S&P 500 SPDRs 5min Chart

The Beige Book was not terrible. It is expected that JPM will release good earnings report tomorrow and many see signs of stabilization of the economy. The biggie was American Express Co (AXP) saying defaults rose only slightly after months of deterioration.
The market is undoubtedly acting much stronger than many predicted for such a large rally. The 850 key level is acting as a magnet for price. Any price movement too far away in either direction could ignite a large escape movement.

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart

Healthy retracement

LtPinback — Mon, 16 Mar 2009 22:24:00 +0000

The day started gaping up and rallying to the resistance at the 30 day simple moving average (SMA). The resistance was tested twice and the retracement sell off ensued. The day ended in red but almost flat. Volume was high and broke trend. It looks like a normal retracement movement after a large rally. Fibonacci suggest price will print 734 or 721 on the S&P 500 index before the rally continues onward.

S&P 500 Index 5min Chart

S&P 500 SPDRs 5min Chart

The Financial Sector showed strength early in the day on Barclays Plc (BCS) joining the “me too” profit club and by news that the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) proposed to allow some relaxation on mark-to-market accounting rules. The Market mood was also improved by comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke during an interview on “60 Minutes” on Sunday stating that the U.S. recession could probably come to an end this year. The only downer in the day was American Express (AXP) news that the number of people struggling to make credit card payments grew in February. The S&P 500 printed a Bearish Doji.

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart